RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC
 
(10/10/17): The 5yr Treasury has rebounded to the previous May and July intermediate highs, halfway between the longer-term 1.80 support and 2.10+ resistance areas.

(8/11/17): With recent worries over potential military action against N. Korea, the flight-for-safety trade of buying U.S. Treasuries has pulled the 5yr rate back down below 1.80 support. 

(3/21/17): The  multi-year major level of 1.80 was solid resistance from 2013 until it flipped to support after the election. Now in a new range, the low 2.30’s could be a potential high resistance for the 5yr Treasury this year. That said, the extreme expectations reflected in the Trump-train stock market rally (currently Dow 20,905), may be short-lived. If a substantial equity market correction was to occur in the weeks/months ahead, it's very possible 1.80 support could be violated, sending the 5yr Treasury rate to 1.50, maybe even back to 1.00.

(1/05/17): Spike high patterns in the 5yr Treasury have occurred the past several years with most of them lasting just a couple weeks before reversing to retest their origins. Does that mean the recent meteoric rise in the 5yr Treasury will collapse to 1.20? Who knows. But at least this historic pattern suggests some potential pull-back…..soon.

(11/14/16): Quite a sensational blast through several resistance levels, the 5yr Treasury rockets through 1.40 and 1.60 in just 4 sessions, possibly challenging multi-year major resistance of 1.80.  My take is while 1.80 may be hit in the days/weeks ahead, some back and filling should occur, possibly bringing the 5yr back down to 1.40 before year-end.

(11/05/16): The 5yr Treasury rate moved solidly back into its multi-month upward sloping channel. This pattern points to an eventual test of 1.40. Of course, all bets are off if/when equities sell-off sending buyers clamoring for Treasuries and high quality fixed income.

(7/19/16): Following the anticipated drop to 1.00 spurred on by the Brexit vote and disappointing employment data in late June/early July, the 5yr Treasury now begins an important test back to the 1.12-1.15 area. This level has been critical multi-year support. Today, the big question is will this area now become hardened resistance? Or just temporary and rates resume the previous multi-year channel (1.20-1.80)? My belief is the answer still points to the stock market. If stocks continue to set new highs, rates will ultimately rise. But, if you think as I do, the stock market is way over-due for a severe correction and a bear market ensues, rates go lower to the next target, 80bps.

(4/08/16): Still trading in a three year range between 1.80-1.15, the 5yr Treasury once again faces a possible break down toward the 50bps lows of 2012..........or another run back toward 1.80. Most certainly the outcome will be determined by the direction of equities. 

(10/20/15): Down we go. Outside of 2 days in mid-September, the 5y Treasury downward channel is intact. While 1.00 is the most likely outcome in the months ahead, don’t doubt a few bounces will be potential buying opportunities. Possibly reaching 1.50 on any sizable rally in the stock market. But all will be short lived. The way-over-due stock market correction is here and will very likely develop into a tremendous bear market.

(6/05/15): The 5yr treasury rate pushed through a 9mo old downward channel trend’s upper band. While a test of the multi-year high of 1.80 is probable, I still wouldn’t rule out 1.00 on a way-overdue equity market correction.

(10/14/14): Significant rate support was broken today across most treasury issues. It is now very possible the 5yr will test 1.00 or lower over the next several months.

(1/08/14): The 5yr treasury rate is making another run at intermediate resistance currently at 1.74. The big question is can rates break through this intermediate six year downward sloping resistance and go higher? Obviously, one answer could be yes. But, my take is this just another test in the bigger picture of lower rates ahead. Another thing. Since the majority of market pundits believe rates can only go higher…..well, we’ve seen over and over, history is filled with outcomes that are much different than majority consensus.

(9/09/13): Here's an update to the long-term channel trend of the 5yr treasury you might find useful. The chart shows the clear trend down in rates (really goes back to 1982) with the last 4 months showing a substantial move back up to a level which could be labeled intermediate resistance (1.70-1.80).

(7/23/13): After blowing through the previous mentioned 120bps ceiling, the five year treasury continued it's meteoric rise to longer-term resistance dating back to July 2011. As the markets attempt to discount both economic recovery and potential tapering of quantitative easing, we should expect no less than extreme volatility. It's probably best to raise top resistance to 200bps (hit multiple time in 2009 -2011), while realistically assuming a 100bps floor. 

(6/06/13): Enduring 13 months of an excruciatingly narrow 60-80bps trading range (including a brief foray to 90bps), the five year treasury finally broke it's shackles into what could be a brand new trading range. Looking back to spike highs in Nov. 2011 and again in March 2012, the next ceiling could be the 120bps level, making the floor or support 90bps.

(4/02/13): Back to the shackles. After a breakout above the 60-80bps prison ceiling, the five year treasury tested 90bps a couple times, before being hauled back to the jail. The hope would be the equity market's continued bull run would give another boost to rates. But, I'd more worry about a very, very over-do stock market correction (the longest multi-year gain without a 20 percent or greater correction since 1929!), which would no doubt bring rates down with falling stock prices.

(01/31/13): Breakout! Finally, the 9 month shackle of 60-80bps trading range has been broken.

(11/08/12): The 5yr is holding true to the 80bps resistance and 60bps support range.......basically put in place the last 6 months. In my humble opinion, there's not much that can cause a move out of this band until there's a clearer direction in the equity markets (which are primarily waiting for DC to address the fiscal cliff, now that the election is over and of course, how Europe handles its own woes). I still believe a substantial stock market correction is likely, which doesn't bode well for higher rates.

(09/07/12): After a bit of a long hiatus updating this 5yr technical chart, it's nice to see we haven't hit zero yet. But, sure feels like we've been close. July found us at a multi-generational low of 54bps, followed be a sharp rise (typical of any bear market) then only to drift back down to what looks like intermediate support around 60bps.

(08/18/11): No sooner did I write that the 5yr treasury couldn't possibly trade for any length of time below 1.00, the FOMC minutes released the following day told us the Fed will effectively be committed to ultra-low rates for at least the next two years, sending treasury yields across the curve, crashing down. Today the five year treasury trades below 90bps, helped by concerns of further European bank and sovereign debt crisis, a general worldwide slow down and fears of a US double-dip recession. At this point, it might be safe to say zero would be as low as it could go.

(08/08/11): Following the historic downgrade of US government debt by S&P, the five year treasury is probing for support around the early November 2010 low of 1.03. Unless panic selling in equities continues (Dow -635 today), it's hard to imagine the five year treasury trading for any sustainable period below 1 percent.

(04/19/11): Post a failed run to higher rates and subsequent drop back to near-term support in the low 2.00's, the five year treasury range looks likely to bounce between the mid-March 1.82 low and the 2.25-2.35 area until there is either a significant stock market correct or change in fed policy.  

(2/28/11): Five year treasury rates test near term resistance of 2.25-2.35, with a spike high of 2.40. Currently, the 5yr is consolidated toward 2 percent support (same level was resistance, see previous post), readying for the next big test if rates hold here. It's fairly easy to technically see if rates fall below 1.90, there's a good chance we're back in the 1.50 area again. On the upside, if further consolidation over the next several weeks occurs at or above the 2.00-2.14 area, major support will be confirmed and higher highs would be expected.

(12/10/10): A resurgence in inflation fears, rising deficits and a general risk appetite for stocks versus bonds has sent the 5yr treasury yield up over 80bps in just four weeks. Strong overhead resistance is 2.00. If this level is broken, next stop would be around 2.25-2.35.    

(8/17/10): As expected in the last observation three months ago, we came within points of reaching 10,700 Dow on August 9th. But did surging equity prices send rates higher? Surprisingly, no. It appears there's a winner-take-all death battle going on between the equity market's optimism for economic recover and the bond market's fear of a slow down or worse, double dip recession. Which scenario wins? We'll find out soon enough. Personally, I'd trust the bond markets prediction as seen. It's always been the best economic indicator, particularly the shape of the yield curve. As it's flatted over the last few weeks, it too is a sign for tougher times ahead. The five year treasury is currently in the low 1.40s, which looks like major support. That said, sometime within this fundamental economic downshift lasting many years, and most likely the decade, I'd expect a yield around 1.00 to be the ultimate bottom.

(5/24/10): Lots of D's: deflation, de-leveraging (excluding sovereign debt), fear of a global double dip recession/depression and issuer default, send safe heaven treasuries rates to lows seen only a couple times since the financial crisis began. The "safety" trade may only lift with a clearer move up in the equity markets. This author's bet is the Dow will trade into the 8k's later this year, bringing rates down further. But, like all major market moves, this will not happen in a straight line. I'd expect at least another run up to test 11,300 Dow (at least 10,700) before a dive later into autumn or late summer.

(2/16/10):  For now, the 2.00 level is holding and not withstanding some really, really bad news out of left field, looks like the 2.35 area is offering the more realistic support. Overhead resistance remains around 2.75.

(10/07/09): The trend in the five year yield has general been higher lows over the last 10 months. But, recent attempts at new highs have meet considerable resistance. The concern  (if you are looking for higher rates) is a potential break below 2.00. Certainly, if the economy continues to expand at or above market consensus, the upward trend should remain.

(6/05/09): Fueled be a better than expected jobs report, the five year breaks through 2.50 resistance. Look for some base building between 2.50 - 3.00 before a push to 3.50 or higher in the months ahead.

(3/18/09): The upward channel trend continues, suggesting higher rates ahead.

(2/03/09): An encouraging technical signal for better rates ahead......higher lows and higher highs since mid-December 2008.

(12/12/08): Five year treasury rates have plummeted through 2.00 support levels like the proverbial hot knife through butter. Now at levels half of where we were just four month ago, I find it hard to believe buyers will continue to be happy earning 1.67 percent on five year paper.

(10/08/08): The flight to treasuries and financial market Armageddon continues. Similar to the 2yr chart pattern, a double bottom has formed, favoring higher rates ahead.

(8/12/08): Similar to the 2yr chart pattern, good technical support has been building over the last 4 months. This suggests a move from the low 3.00 area back to 3.75 resistance. Of course it's never in a straight line. If you are a buyer, I'd look for higher rates before committing to longer term securities.

(6/13/08): Onward and upward. A break above 3.50 should keep us on track to 4.00 as the curve regains a steeper slope (due to inflation worries). But as noted on the 2yr treasury chart update page, this probably won't be in a one move. I'd expect a consolidation around  3.25-3.50 before advancing higher.

(5/01/08): An upside down head and shoulders pattern formed over the last four months, giving a high confidence confirmation the 5yr should find it's way back to 3.50, then on to 4.00 over the next several months.

(4/08/08): Finally, looks like we've reached a bottom in five year treasury rates around the 2.30 area. It wouldn't surprise me if 3.50 is hit within the next few quarters as credit markets stabilized and the "hording" of treasury securities unwinds..

(3/03/08): While five year treasuries stabilized for most of February, the final week of the month rates break to levels not visited since July 2003.  

(1/22/08): Five year treasury rates have fallen an astonishing 50% over the last seven months as investors gobble up treasury securities regardless of price. With levels not seen in four years in an over-bought treasury market, and with today's emergency 75bps Fed Funds cut, I would expect some base building over the next several weeks.

(10/29/07): A possible double bottom around 4.00 may be indicating the 5yr treasury rate has set a low for the year. As mentioned in previous posts, the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong, despite the worries over sub-prime mortgages and housing in general.

(7/27/07): After hitting a spike high of 5.20 on June12, rates drop back down to a consolidation range between 5.10-4.90 for several weeks. Then comes a stock market correction, sending rates spiraling down to major support, now seen at 4.43. As noted on the 2yr treasury chart update page, this is not a good level to lock in rates (but is for the borrower!)

(6/15/07):  Like a hot knife in butter, the five year treasury rate goes through 4.88 resistance. Next stop 5.12? I have to say "eventually", since the economy's fundamentals are very strong due to strong family spending demographics (consumer spending = 70% of GDP!). But, after any big move in a short period of time, I would expect some consolidation. Probably around 5.00 for several weeks.

(5/16/07):  While not as technically clear as the 2 yr chart pattern, the 4.63 level appears to be minor resistance. A break above 4.70 should see us back towards the 1/29/07 high of 4.88. On the low side, 4.50 support should hold.

(4/16/07): After holding the December 5th low of 4.38, the five year treasury rate rebounds again towards 4.80 resistance.

(3/2/07): This is same pattern as the two year treasury. In a flight to quality caused be equity market correction, five year treasuries dive back down to the December 5th low of 4.38.

(1/23/07): Since the recent December 5th low of 4.38, rates have rebound to 4.80 resistance. If we break above 4.80, the next resistance level is 4.90 (matching the mid-June 2006 consolidation level).

(1/08/07): A sharp decline to the 4.38 level occurred in just a few days after the 11/27/06 observation. But just as quickly, rates rebound to 4.70, taking with it the possibility of testing January 2006 lows. Currently, the short-term resistance area is around 4.80 (similar to the 2yr treasury).

(11/27/06): A struggle to maintain levels above 4.63 suggests further weakness to 4.25 (January 2006 lows) is highly probable. 

(10/27/06): Resting right on top of the support line of this multiple year upward channel, the five treasury rate tests 4.63 support.

(9/29/06): The five treasury rate goes through previous 4.68 support, and remains slight below the upward channel trend line.

(9/07/06):  We hit 4.68 on 9/1, which is very close to major support. Higher rates ahead? If this 36 month upward channel is to stay intact, then YES! 

(8/18/06):  The 5 year treasury rate hit a 5.23 high on 6/26 and has subsequently set lower highs through July. This may indicated rates have peaked for the near term. Major support is around the 4.65 level.

(6/20/06): Jury is not out. The 5 year rate barely pokes up above resistance. 

(5/30/06): Major multi-year resistance holds at the 5.00-5.10 area.

(4/28/06): Similar to the 2yr treasury rate, major multi-year resistance continues to hold at the 4.90-5.00 area.

(4/4/06): The 5 year treasury rate continues it's march to major resistance at 4.90-5.00.

(3/2/06): We are closing in on a major multi-year resistance level in the 4.90-5.00 area, which is the top part of the 25 year downward channel. This is also true for the 10 and 30 year treasuries as well.

(2/6/06): The large and quick move predicted in the previous posts has occurred.  The five-year treasury should now move in a consolidated pattern with resistance in the 4.90-5.00 area. Support moves up to 4.40-4.50.

1/13/06): The triangle pattern observed several weeks ago has now developed into a "bull flag" pattern. Flag patterns represent brief pauses in a dynamic market.  They are typically seen right after a big, quick move.  The market then usually takes off again in the same direction.  Research has shown that these patterns are some of the most reliable continuation patterns.

(12/20/05): A triangle pattern continues to form in text book fashion. The next big move is usually a breakout in the direction of the long-term trend. In this case, up.  

(12/2/05): Almost identical to the 2yr chart, near term range is 4.30-4.56. 

(11/21/05): Similar to the 2yr chart, we may have completed a double or even triple top pattern.  Near term resistance is 4.56.  

(11/03/05): After breaching the previous near-term resistance level of 4.33, the 5yr treasury rate continues in it's upward channel pattern established in 2003. Next resistance level is 5.00.

(10/13/05): Close to new highs, the 5yr treasury tests near term resistance. 

(9/20/05): The 5yr treasury continues trading in the 3.98- 4.33 range. 

(9/2/05): With a convincing break below 3.98, the wider trading range is now 3.63- 4.33 range, and minor support at 3.80. 

(8/25/05): The 5yr treasury continues trading in the 3.98- 4.33 range. 

(8/03/05): We've sliced convincingly through intermediate resistance of 4.00. The new range is 3.98-4.33 

(7/18/05): Broke through minor resistance at 3.90. Next challenge is 4.00

(7/6/05): A short term channel has developed between 3.63-3.90. 

(6/22/05): Major support holds at 3.63.  But, it's possible we have developed a "head and shoulders" pattern over the last 6 months.  If this holds true, a break below 3.63 could take us to 3.30.

(6/8/05): Well, the possible spike low I wrote about earlier actually became 3.63.  Now we're back to 3.72 which should make 3.63 major support. 

(5/25/05): Another attempt at 3.80 minor support. There is no technical evidence that new rate highs won't be reached later this year.

(5/18/05): Very benign inflation data allows the 5yr rate to drop below 3.82 support. If you are looking to sell longer paper (at a high price), this could be the time.

(5/04/05): The 3.82 support level continues to hold. While this powerful upward channel should guide us to new highs around 4.50 sometime this year, we can't rule out the possibility of a temporary spike low to 3.70. 

(4/14/05): Finally, a significant correction in yield brings us back toward support. The 3.82 level should hold, but I wouldn't rule out a possible spike low to 3.70 before we see new highs later this year.

(3/29/05): At 4.30, we are getting close to the level I would expect some pull back in yield. Nothing moves in a straight line. Range remains 3.82-4.40. 

(3/10/05): We sliced through 4.09 resistance without much hesitation. This takes us to a new range of 3.82-4.40. 

(2/28/05): No pull back........yet.  New recent high at 4.00 makes the June 14, 2004 record of 4.09 the next near term resistance.

(2/24/05): At 3.86, we're trying to knock through resistance to new 7 month highs. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back to the 3.60 area before making this attempt. 

(2/11/05): Resistance is holding at 3.80-3.85. Consolidation around 3.70.

(1/28/05): Resistance is holding at 3.80-3.85.

(1/10/05): We should be approaching some slight near term resistance at 3.80-3.85.

(12/28/04): This text book perfect upward channel chart continues to show us rates are going up.

(12/17/04):  This is a very powerful upward channel trend. You can see it shouldn't take long before we're challenging the 4.00+ level again.

(12/7/04): Even with another clear signal from the VIX index that stocks should correct a min. 3-5%, and rates would most likely follow, we would have to close below 3.25 to change the clear long term direction...........rates up.

(11/24/04): We're right at 3.60 resistance. Not if, but when this is taken out, the next target will be 4.10.

(11/18/04): Near term resistance holds at 3.60. But, similar to the 2yr chart, there's no problem identifying the longer term trend.....rates up.

(11/08/04): A surprisingly good employment report sends rates rocketing close to 3.60 resistance. Support remains at 3.00. 

(10/25/04): The short-term downward channel trend is getting closer to meeting the 3.00 battle line. Again, without a more significant stock market correct (Dow 9000), major support should remain at 3.00.

(10/15/04): Still within it's bands, the downward channel in rates continues. But, as seen in this chart update, the longer term trend (rates up) should confine any drop in the 5yr to 3.00.

(10/8/04): After trading a few sessions above the top line, which indicated a break out, the 5yr dives back into it's downward channel on today's disappointing jobs data. 

(9/29/04): Still not challenging a break out to higher rates as seen in the 2yr chart.  The 5yr remains in it's downward channel. A break above 3.50 is needed to confirm a new trend of higher rates.

(9/21/04): With a successful hit at 3.25 and no upward attempt to breakout of this channel, the 3.00 level remains the challenge. 

(9/10/04): This powerful downward channel continues to be very convincing 5yr rates are headed lower. The 3.25 is an easy target to hit, with the real test at 3.00.

(9/3/04): A powerful downward channel should keep a heavy lid on any advance above 3.60.

(8/20/04): Again, lower rate lows and lower rate highs over the last 3 months form a very clear down channel picture.  It might be very good advice to buy the 5yr now or hope for a best level of 3.60 and buy with both hands and feet!

(8/12/04): Now the 3.60 area becomes intermediate resistance.

(8/6/04): Just like last months disappointing jobs data, the July numbers show only 32k vs the expected 240k new jobs. The intermediate support battle at the 3.60 level is now over. Next challenge/support is 3.00 (please read previous posts). 

(7/27/04): The 3.60 intermediate support stays intact. Although lower peak highs June-July is pointing in the direction of lower rates ahead. What a battle.  

(7/21/04): The 3.60 intermediate support still looks vulnerable even after a successful test at 3.54 (one day close).

(7/7/04): With the first of the markets highly anticipated fed moves behind us and a disappointing June jobs report released last Friday, medium to long term rates drop substantially. The 5yr 3.60 support level has been tested. It is possible that we could see a full 50% retracement of the 12 month move in rates from 2.00 (June 03) to 4.00 (June 04). The 3.00 level also culminates at the pinnacle of 6 month symmetrical triangle. 

(6/18/04): The range remains 3.70-4.50, with the 4.00 area a most probable average as we wait for the June 30 FOMC.

(6/10/04): We've pushed through 4.00 intermediate resistance. Next ceiling looks like the 4.50 area. Support is raised to 3.70. 

(5/27/04): While 3.60 offers intermediate support, I wouldn't rule out a pull back to 3.50 (38% retracement of the +138bps move from 3/24-5/13).

(5/18/04): Support at 3.60 should hold, with temporary resistance at 4.00.

(5/10/04): The last observation below was clearly wrong. April's job data confirm treasury buyers will demand higher and higher rates. Minor resistance at 4.00. Strong resistance not until 5.05 (high set in May, 1991).

(4/28/04): The 3.60 resistance level keeps a lid on advancing rates.  

(4/21/04): Eventually we'll need to challenge 3.60 with the likelihood of a Fed tightening. The 3.20 level remains strong support.  

(4/19/04): It's easy to see the ultimate near-term 3.60 resistance. We seem to be settling in the intermediate 3.45 area. Don't rule out a temporary pull back to 3.20, or even 3.00.  That said, a year from now, it will be a different story. I'd plan on 4.50+ when the Fed's will most likely be in a tightening cycle.

(4/12/04): A repeat of similar rate rises we witnessed in last year's July/August period? 

(4/5/04): As seen in the 2yr chart, we blew by 3.00 resistance in one day and now challenge the 3.20 area. But, it's not clear we can continue higher without first attempting a pull back, possibly to 3.00.

(3/29/04): We've broken through 2.80 intermediate resistance (intra-day as of this writing). While this can offer a reasonably good technical buying level, 3.00 would be ideal. If you've been waiting for an excuse to do some buying, this could be it. 

(3/24/04): As seen on the 2yr chart, we remain in a narrow range that suggest better buying would be towards 2.80, while holding off closer to 2.60 support. But, bear in mind that in the not too distant future, we will ultimately break out of this complacent range, up to 40 basis points above or below 2.80-2.60. 

(3/17/04): 2.60 support continues. Minor resistance at 2.80.

(3/10/04):  2.60 support test to come. Minor resistance at 2.80.

(3/5/04):  Fundamentally, hard to believe we would see the technically predicted break-out move down. But, as observed in the developed "descending triangle" pattern of the last several months, high probability was given to this decline in rates. As of this writing, the 5yr is below the 2.80 Oct 1, 2003 low and below the apex of the last developed triangle pattern completed April 29, 2003. That leaves us with the next intermediate support level of 2.60 (major support 2.00). 

(3/4/04): As stated below........it's coming.

(2/26/04): Get ready for a break-out,  as we approach the apex of this "descending triangle" pattern.

(2/20/04): 2.96 continues to hold offering good support. But, a possible "descending triangle" has developed. Does this mean rates are headed lower? Check out the link in the previous sentence.

(2/12/04): Good support at 2.96 with minor resistance remaining at 3.20-3.25

(2/04/04): Support is holding at the 2.96 level.  Minor resistance at 3.20-3.25

(1/29/04): Greenspan drops "considerable period" phrase signaling to the market they can raise rates sooner than later. 

(1/27/04): Intermediate support is building at the 2.96 level.

(1/21/04): Intermediate support at 2.96? To confirm this, it would be encouraging to see a successful test and bounce from this level.

(1/13/04): Next support at 2.80 (Oct. 1, 2003 low).

(1/7/04): Breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern? Hard to believe, put if this is a true break-out, the 5yr could reach the low 2's. (????)

(1/7/04): Looks like we're continuing to build a symmetrical triangle pattern (over the last 4 months) with 3.20 as the base.

(12/29/03): Very indecisive. The only thing to say (which is not very helpful) is the big picture range maintains 2.80-3.60.

(12/12/03): Did we "take out" support for the move to higher rates?  

(12/10/03): Big move coming. Also seen in the 2yr chart, it's getting hard to deny that the next big move is up. 

(12/1/03): A break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern?  If so, we could see 4.00 within Q1 2004.

(11/26/03): While not as clear as the ascending triangle seen in the 2yr chart, it's not too difficult to outline the building of a symmetrical triangle pattern. 

(11/19/03): Resistance 3.40-3.45

(11/14/03): We need to hold 3.09-3.20 to maintain the current symmetrical triangle pattern.

(11/7/03): Again, similar to the 2yr chart, this break out could result in a substantial move up. The new target looks like 3.80-4.00 over the next several months.

(11/4/03): Similar to the 2yr chart, a symmetrical triangle (characterized as areas of indecision) is forming. Research has shown that symmetrical triangles overwhelmingly resolve themselves in the direction of the of the previous medium and/or long term trend.

(10/28/03): We could be setting up a symmetrical triangle, as we did in March-April.  

(10/20/03): Again, until we see at least a 10% correction in equities, 2.80 is solid support. 

(10/14/03): Without a meaningful correction in equities, 2.80 is the floor.

(10/03/03): Nothing like a good employment report to turn things around (+57k vs. -25k expected).

(9/30/03): Getting close to 2.80..........on just a 1% correction in equities!!! Just imagine what a reasonable 15-20% correction will yield. 2.00-2.20????

(925/03): Next stop 2.80? With a possible 15-20% correction in equities......it's very likely.

(9/15/03): Support in the 3.00-3.10 area.

(9/8/03): Last Friday's unemployment report has the market rethinking higher rates. Support should be around 3.00   

(8/15/03): Still testing major resistance. If we break above 3.45, there isn't much technically to stop us from going to 4.00. Since we are in a bear bond market, eventually we will go though 4.00. But, then again, with Fed Funds at 1.00, I doubt it can happen without a Fed tightening.

(8/8/03): Like the 2yr, we should have seen the high rates for the summer.  Major resistance has now been confirmed in the 3.35-3.45 area.

(8/1/03): It's been 6 weeks since the June 13th low of 2.03.  We should find resistance in the 3.35-3.45 area.

(7/28/03): Closes at 3.14 (above major resistance)  

(7/24/03): Major resistance at 3.08, minor support 2.86

 The following technical observation is provided by http://www.chartpatterns.com

 

 
 
RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC, Securities America, Inc, 27 Reed Boulevard, Mill Valley, CA 94941

(phone) 415-771-9421       (fax) 415-762-1980