RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC
 
  The Robinson Report           A quick and simple weekly market performance report.
Monday, January 29, 2007

 

 


Week in review:  

  • The MarketsDespite the Dow setting its fourth record high of 2007, the major index ended a volatile week with a loss. As economic indicators maintain mostly positive results, the chances of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut fade. According to the Fed Funds futures market, there is less than 5 percent (virtually nil) probability of a cut by the June FOMC meeting. The Dow closed out the week down 0.62 percent to 12,487.02. The S&P dropped 0.58 percent to 1,422.18, and the NASDAQ lost 0.65 percent to close at 2,435.49. Only the small company indexes showed slight gains.

  • Home Sweet HomeThe National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes were down 0.8 percent last month, a bigger decline than had been expected. For the year, sales fell by 8.4 percent, the biggest annual decline since 1982, when existing home sales fell by 17.7 percent in the midst of a severe recession. Even with the sharp drop in sales last year, the median price of an existing home sold in 2006 managed to rise a slight 1.1 percent. But that was far below the double-digit gains during the boom years. The median home price had risen by 12.4 percent in 2005.

  • Consumers More Positive Than Analysts – Consumer sentiment climbed from an index reading of 91.7 in December to 98.0 in January, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. That exceeded economists’ forecast of 92.5 and is the highest reading since January 2004 when the index hit 103.80

  • Up More Than Inflation Over the last 20 years (1987-2006), the average cost of a semiprivate hospital room (not counting doctor services) has gone up 738 percent, an increase of 11.2 percent per year. That room now costs $5,260 per night. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index has gone up 83 percent over the same period, an increase of 3.1 percent per year. The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of inflation compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Studies (Source: Medical Mutual of Ohio, Wall Street Journal, and Department of Labor).  


ASSET CLASS RETURNS (see disclosures below)  


  


Portfolio Performance REVIEW (see disclosures below)  

 

   

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"History is a race between education and catastrophe." --H.G. Wells

 

% change in week ending 01/27/07

S&P500

(0.58)

US Lg Val (Russell 1000 Value)

(0.20)

US Sm (Russell 2000)

0.38 

Intl (EAFE)

(0.42)

Intl Sm (EAFE Small)

0.02

3-5yr Govt (Bloomberg)

(0.21)

 

 

 

 

% change

Bloomberg Silicon Valley Index

Last 12 months

(1.22)  

YTD

(0.48)  

Last 5 sessions

(0.61)  

 

 

% change

Global Hedge Fund Index  (01/24/07)

Last 12 months

9.03

YTD

1.39

Last 5 days

0.51

 

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RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC
27 Reed Blvd, Mill Valley, CA 94941
Tel: 1.415.771.9421
Fax: 415.762.1980
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Weekly Market Review by OppenheimerFunds

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Portfolio Performance is calculated by the Bloomberg Professional System on a total return basis. Current portfolio allocations

 

Important Performance Disclosure Information

Asset Class returns are represented by market indexes that are unmanaged baskets of securities. Investors cannot directly invest in market indexes. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.

Portfolio Performance is the total return of seven unique asset allocation strategies that seek to fit the distinct needs of different investor goals, risk tolerance levels and investment time horizon. Each portfolio contains up to 16 individual funds totaling over 4000 securities, managed by OppenheimerFunds. The portfolios are designed to create efficient diversification through the selection of mutual funds that may have a  low correlation between asset classes. The purpose of these tables and charts is for you to follow specific market indexes, observe asset class rotation and to compare actual portfolio returns net of management fees. Asset allocation strategy is available here.       


Performance quoted is past performance and cannot guarantee comparable future results. Performance figures reflect reinvestment of distributions and changes in net asset value (NAV). Investment return and principal value will vary so that you may have a gain or loss when you sell shares. The contingent deferred sales charge (CDSC) on Class C is 1%. No CDSC will be imposed on redemptions of Class C shares following one year from date shares were purchased. Performance shown does not include applicable CDSC, which would have reduced performance.

 

Before investing in any of the OppenheimerFunds, investors should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. The fund's prospectus contains this and other information about the fund. Read prospectuses carefully before investing.      

S&P 500 - Standard & Poor's 500 Index (not including dividends) - generally considered a U.S. Large Growth company market index.

Russell 1000 Value Index (US Lg Val) - generally considered a U.S. Large Value company market index.

Russell 2000 Index (US Sm)- generally considered a U.S. Small company market index.

EAFE - EAFE Index (Intl) (not including dividends) Europe, Australia, Far East and generally considered a large company international market index.

EAFE Sm - EAFE Small Index (Intl Sm) (not including dividends) Europe, Australia, Far East and generally considered a small company international market index.

Bloomberg Silicon Valley Index - market index of high tech companies located in the Silicon Valley area. 
Global Hedge Fund Index - representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of eight strategies: 
convertible arbitrage, merger arbitrage, equity hedge, equity market neutral, relative value arbitrage, event driven, distressed securities, and macro. The strategies are asset weighted based on the distribution of assets in the hedge fund industry. See hedge fund risks. 

3-5yr Treas. - Bloomberg U.S. Government Treasuries 3-5 year maturities index and generally considered a intermediate maturity U.S. Government Note index.

Asset Class - a group of investments that share similar risk and return characteristics.

All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political changes, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy.  

The information contained herein is based on sources and data believed reliable, but is not guaranteed. Advisory services offered through RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC, SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Douglas C. Robinson, Registered Representative. RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC and Securities America, Inc. are separate and unaffiliated.

 
RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC, Securities America, Inc, 27 Reed Boulevard, Mill Valley, CA 94941

(phone) 415-771-9421       (fax) 415-762-1980